When Mike McDonnell kicked off his mayoral campaign back in November, I asked him whether he would support Jean Stothert if it were a choice between her and John Ewing in the general election.
“It’s not going to be a choice between Jean Stothert and John Ewing,” he told me. The comment was predictable and probably only meant, “I’m the candidate who’s going to win.” At the time, however, I took it to mean he saw no real difference between the two.
Four and a half months later, that’s exactly the choice his supporters are faced with.
Divided Party, Broken Machinery
McDonnell’s campaign was the latest attempt by the populist grassroots faction of the Nebraska GOP to upend an entrenched Republican incumbent with a primary challenger. Now, after a largely contentious primary with the general election looming ahead, McDonnell’s supporters have to decide where they go from here.
Stothert won the most votes in the city primary—but only by 37%. This is a far cry from the 57% margin she won in 2021, when she also faced four primary challengers. McDonnell won 20.5% of the vote on Tuesday, more than half the votes Stothert received. Internal polling from the McDonnell campaign revealed that nearly all of his support came at the expense of the Stothert campaign—voters unhappy with Jean who had broken away in hopes of an alternative.
While Republicans fracture, Democrats reap the benefits — particularly in an era of early and mail-in voting. John Ewing came within striking distance of Stothert with 32% of the vote, and it’s a safe assumption that the 10% who went for Democrat Jasmine Harris will join him.
“I’ll Support the Winner”
There has been a certain expectation that party members show unity even after a contentious primary. In 1998, I attended a Republican meet-and-greet event in downtown Lincoln during the gubernatorial primary. Several candidates, including then-Mayor Hal Daub, wore blue stickers with the words “I’ll Support the Winner.”
McDonnell’s base, however, coalesced around the idea of walking away from an incumbent, and it will take more than an appeal to party loyalty to bring them back.
Several McDonnell supporters I spoke with on election night and afterward are actively considering voting for John Ewing. Part of this is clearly out of spite, but they also believe that the difference between Ewing and Stothert is minimal.
I got to hear Stothert speak on three separate occasions during the primary, and every single time she only attacked Mike McDonnell—she did not go after John Ewing even once. Many of Stothert’s positions are also largely the same as Ewing’s, particularly when compared to McDonnell’s. Both Stothert and Ewing have an ambivalence toward removing homeless encampments, a hands-off approach to ICE enforcement, and a commitment to seeing the streetcar project through to the finish.
Ewing does give McDonnell’s supporters one thing they wanted in a candidate—someone new in the mayor’s office. In order for Stothert to remain there, she is going to have to differentiate herself from her Democratic rival.
Hat in Hand
As a former Democrat, McDonnell had to do a significant amount of outreach to convince his bloc of the GOP that he was authentic. In January, February, and March this year, McDonnell attended meetings and events with the Douglas County Republican Party (DCRP), working to win them over. An endorsement from a county party in a contested election requires a two-thirds vote of party membership, but one week before the election, McDonnell got it.
Stothert, on the other hand, never asked for such an endorsement. She never even showed up to a DCRP meeting, though she did send surrogates to leave palm cards. Incumbent Republicans often have an expectation that party members will line up behind them automatically, leaving any form of outreach for those who are “across the aisle.”
Stothert does not have that luxury in this race. Democrats have their candidate, and thanks to ballot harvesting, which accounted for 62% of the vote in the primary, most of them will lock in their votes before Election Day. Democrats will see no reason to switch to the three-term incumbent of the Republican Party when they can elect the first Black mayor of Omaha instead. Any new votes Stothert wants to claim will have to come from the McDonnell camp.
As the mayor’s race unfolds, Jean Stothert’s path to victory hinges on her ability to consolidate the Republican base by winning back McDonnell’s disaffected supporters—a task that will require her to swallow her pride and actively pursue a DCRP endorsement, much like her opponent did. This effort demands more than stump speeches about corporate development projects and statistical achievements—it calls for Stothert to genuinely engage with the grassroots by sitting down to listen to their concerns.
